Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Accepting Another
Question came up last night. Before you can fully accept someone for who they are, do you need to know, or even want to know, everything about them?
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Jimmy Buffet Gang
Here is a picture of the gang from the Jimmy Buffet concert. Check out the tall dude with all the crap around his neck wearing the stylish hat in the middle.
Financial Meltdown
Well, things are going from bad to worse. The market lost 500+ points yesterday with the news that more banks are going belly up. The entire point of bailing out Behr-Sterns was to prevent Washington Mutual and Lerhman Brothers from failing, which is what they are on their way to doing.
And even worse is AIG failing. From this:
What does this all mean? It means the S&L crisis of the 80's will look like peanuts compared to this. There is a possibility, and getting stronger, that we are just at the tip of the iceburg as far as bank failures go.
Buckle your seat belts, it could get awfully rough.
And even worse is AIG failing. From this:
If AIG were to fail, the global ripple effects would be unprecedented, said Robert Bolton, managing director at Mendon Capital Advisors Corp. It has $1 trillion in assets and operates in 130 countries.
[...]
"If AIG fails and can't make good on its obligations, forget it," Bolton said. "It's as big a wave as you're going to see."
What does this all mean? It means the S&L crisis of the 80's will look like peanuts compared to this. There is a possibility, and getting stronger, that we are just at the tip of the iceburg as far as bank failures go.
Buckle your seat belts, it could get awfully rough.
Monday, September 15, 2008
National Deficit, Taxes and You!
I'm not an economist and my understanding of macro- and micro-economics is slim to none. However, I wanted to point out something about deficit spending and taxes that you may not know (assuming this is right, of course, which it may not be.)
Deficit spending my the government (you know, the national debt) is one of those things that is a really big number but it is in that macro-economics realm where it is hard to give a shit about. I mean, how does the national debt affect you, right? Well, through ways that are complicated as crap, the higher the debt the higher the interest rates. Interest rates affect what you pay for your car, your house, your credit cards, etc. So a higher deficit means you end up forking out more for those items than you would with a lower national deficit.
Ok, so now taxes. Taxes affect your income directly so the cause/effect relationship there is clear. Lower taxes = more money you take home. Good times.
However, think about this. Your debt is probably higher than your income as far as total numbers go. Meaning, if you own a house, a car, run a credit card balance, have other loans, etc the total amount of all that probably exceeds the total amount you make in any given year from your paycheck, right? Let's put numbers on it to illustrate the point. Say your total debt is $400,000 (house, car, etc) and your yearly income is $75,000/year. Your tax rate is, oh, 18% or so and the combined interest rate you are paying for all that debt is somewhere around 7%. That means $13,500 of your salary a year is going into the void while $28,000 of your hard earned money is going into the void paying off your debt. So already the interest burden on your debt affect you more than the tax burden on your paycheck, even though it isn't as obvious.
Ok, so now say, because of the national debt, your combined interest rate for all that crazy goes up to 8%. However, the nice people in congress cut your taxes and now you only pay 15%. Alright! More money, right! Depends on what your definition of 'more' is. Now you are paying $11,250 in taxes but $32,000 in interest on your debt. So yea, you get the obvious $2250 increase in your paycheck but you end up forking out $4000 more in interest. So you actually end up loosing $1750. Damn politicians!
I say all that to say this. While tax cuts are fine and good, it is just pandering. It is an easy thing to explain to people that 'we are going to give you your money back' because it seems obvious. In reality, there is more going on. Those tax cuts tie directly into increasing the national debt which in turns increases your interest rates which in turn probably actually costs you more money than if the tax rate was maintained (or even raised some) and the deficit payed down.
Of course, there is a LOT more going on than just this but it is something to take into consideration when people fixate on just lower taxes. It isn't that clear cut.
Deficit spending my the government (you know, the national debt) is one of those things that is a really big number but it is in that macro-economics realm where it is hard to give a shit about. I mean, how does the national debt affect you, right? Well, through ways that are complicated as crap, the higher the debt the higher the interest rates. Interest rates affect what you pay for your car, your house, your credit cards, etc. So a higher deficit means you end up forking out more for those items than you would with a lower national deficit.
Ok, so now taxes. Taxes affect your income directly so the cause/effect relationship there is clear. Lower taxes = more money you take home. Good times.
However, think about this. Your debt is probably higher than your income as far as total numbers go. Meaning, if you own a house, a car, run a credit card balance, have other loans, etc the total amount of all that probably exceeds the total amount you make in any given year from your paycheck, right? Let's put numbers on it to illustrate the point. Say your total debt is $400,000 (house, car, etc) and your yearly income is $75,000/year. Your tax rate is, oh, 18% or so and the combined interest rate you are paying for all that debt is somewhere around 7%. That means $13,500 of your salary a year is going into the void while $28,000 of your hard earned money is going into the void paying off your debt. So already the interest burden on your debt affect you more than the tax burden on your paycheck, even though it isn't as obvious.
Ok, so now say, because of the national debt, your combined interest rate for all that crazy goes up to 8%. However, the nice people in congress cut your taxes and now you only pay 15%. Alright! More money, right! Depends on what your definition of 'more' is. Now you are paying $11,250 in taxes but $32,000 in interest on your debt. So yea, you get the obvious $2250 increase in your paycheck but you end up forking out $4000 more in interest. So you actually end up loosing $1750. Damn politicians!
I say all that to say this. While tax cuts are fine and good, it is just pandering. It is an easy thing to explain to people that 'we are going to give you your money back' because it seems obvious. In reality, there is more going on. Those tax cuts tie directly into increasing the national debt which in turns increases your interest rates which in turn probably actually costs you more money than if the tax rate was maintained (or even raised some) and the deficit payed down.
Of course, there is a LOT more going on than just this but it is something to take into consideration when people fixate on just lower taxes. It isn't that clear cut.
Sailing - ASA 104
So I finished the last course I'm taking this year. I'm now certified for 30' to 50' boats in coastal waters (within 3 miles of the coast). Now if I can actually convince a chartering agency to let me out, that'll be the real test.
Anyway, some observations over the weekend:
1) A 36' boat does not stop quickly and is really intimidating under power. Under sail it is a lot more work than a smaller boat but things don't have to happen as fast.
2) This course was easily the most challenging thing I have done both mentally and physically in a long time. Sunday was both some of the most fun and most frustrating moments I've had. My instructor purposely was trying to get me overwhelmed and frustrated, and he did a very good job at it. There is a ton of crap to keep mindful of when skippering and lot coming at you at once. Its very easy to get confused and miss things, particularly when frustration sets in.
Apparently this is something instructors talk about amongst themselves. When the instructor is there, the student is torn between giving their own commands, trying to figure out the commands the instructor wants to hear, and trying to figure out what questions to ask. I know I kept feeling the first two in spades. I wanted to make my own calls and fail on my own, I learn faster that way. I was torn between that and trying to answer the question 'right', even though there isn't always a single way to do stuff. So the end result was just me getting angrier and more frustrated and throwing my hands up a couple of times.
In the end, though, it was a very good experience and I learned a lot.
3) Driving a little Jeep after driving a huge sail boat is very disconcerting.
4) 20 knot winds under full sail close hauled is awesome.
5) Even though there is more time to think through things on a bigger boat, it takes more people and a lot more elbow grease. Skippering is going to be interesting. I apologize now for anyone I get short with in the middle of a maneuver. It is going to happen. If something goes wrong (and it will, without a doubt) there isn't time for being polite, orders have to be barked out and followed to keep things from really going to shit. That was really driven into me over the weekend. Being on the receiving end sucks at first but once you understand why and that it isn't personal, it becomes fun. :)
An example, sheets or sails kept getting hung up on rigging and open hatches. I wouldn't notice and we would be half way through a tack or something and the next thing I know my instructor is barking out really short orders in a less than soothing way. The situation would be resolved and we could finish the maneuver. I felt beat on but it was necessary to complete the maneuver without damaging anything. I think this is an example of being too hard on myself, now that I think about it.
6) One of the jarring differences between big boat sailing and small boat sailing is just how complicated some maneuvers can be. For example, a gybe on a small boat can be executed pretty quickly. In a big boat, there are a bunch of things that have to happen with the sails before the helmsman can even begin. Even thought he maneuver takes longer overall, there is so much going on that you need that extra time to address all, particularly with only two people. Three or more will be a fair bit easier and less hectic I think.
7) Life aboard a boat isn't bad. However, if you are tall like I am, you spend most of the time hunched over so you don't whack your head. Cooking wasn't too bad. It was easier than camping. I cooked all the meals as part of my training.
I think I'll end it there for now. I am really looking forward to skippering some charters with whomever wants to go. I have a good idea of what to do and how to do it but I need practice to solidify it all.
Anyway, some observations over the weekend:
1) A 36' boat does not stop quickly and is really intimidating under power. Under sail it is a lot more work than a smaller boat but things don't have to happen as fast.
2) This course was easily the most challenging thing I have done both mentally and physically in a long time. Sunday was both some of the most fun and most frustrating moments I've had. My instructor purposely was trying to get me overwhelmed and frustrated, and he did a very good job at it. There is a ton of crap to keep mindful of when skippering and lot coming at you at once. Its very easy to get confused and miss things, particularly when frustration sets in.
Apparently this is something instructors talk about amongst themselves. When the instructor is there, the student is torn between giving their own commands, trying to figure out the commands the instructor wants to hear, and trying to figure out what questions to ask. I know I kept feeling the first two in spades. I wanted to make my own calls and fail on my own, I learn faster that way. I was torn between that and trying to answer the question 'right', even though there isn't always a single way to do stuff. So the end result was just me getting angrier and more frustrated and throwing my hands up a couple of times.
In the end, though, it was a very good experience and I learned a lot.
3) Driving a little Jeep after driving a huge sail boat is very disconcerting.
4) 20 knot winds under full sail close hauled is awesome.
5) Even though there is more time to think through things on a bigger boat, it takes more people and a lot more elbow grease. Skippering is going to be interesting. I apologize now for anyone I get short with in the middle of a maneuver. It is going to happen. If something goes wrong (and it will, without a doubt) there isn't time for being polite, orders have to be barked out and followed to keep things from really going to shit. That was really driven into me over the weekend. Being on the receiving end sucks at first but once you understand why and that it isn't personal, it becomes fun. :)
An example, sheets or sails kept getting hung up on rigging and open hatches. I wouldn't notice and we would be half way through a tack or something and the next thing I know my instructor is barking out really short orders in a less than soothing way. The situation would be resolved and we could finish the maneuver. I felt beat on but it was necessary to complete the maneuver without damaging anything. I think this is an example of being too hard on myself, now that I think about it.
6) One of the jarring differences between big boat sailing and small boat sailing is just how complicated some maneuvers can be. For example, a gybe on a small boat can be executed pretty quickly. In a big boat, there are a bunch of things that have to happen with the sails before the helmsman can even begin. Even thought he maneuver takes longer overall, there is so much going on that you need that extra time to address all, particularly with only two people. Three or more will be a fair bit easier and less hectic I think.
7) Life aboard a boat isn't bad. However, if you are tall like I am, you spend most of the time hunched over so you don't whack your head. Cooking wasn't too bad. It was easier than camping. I cooked all the meals as part of my training.
I think I'll end it there for now. I am really looking forward to skippering some charters with whomever wants to go. I have a good idea of what to do and how to do it but I need practice to solidify it all.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
"Fiscal Conservative"
Here is a nice little cartoon for you to put how the last few administration's have faired in regards to the deficit:
It's funny how when you put an administration in power that doesn't believe in a strong federal government you end up with shitty results. Who could have possibly predicted that would happen?
It's funny how when you put an administration in power that doesn't believe in a strong federal government you end up with shitty results. Who could have possibly predicted that would happen?
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
Palin in Four Minutes
Everything you needed to know about Palin in 4 minutes.
Adding, the same people that were/are bitching about Obama's celebrity are now, apparently, purchasing Sarah Palin Dolls and Action Figures with no sense of irony at all.
Adding, the same people that were/are bitching about Obama's celebrity are now, apparently, purchasing Sarah Palin Dolls and Action Figures with no sense of irony at all.
Monday, September 08, 2008
Hahahahahahahahaha
Few things to laugh about.
First, for whatever reason, during the speech on the final night of the RNC convention there was both a blue and a green screen behind McCain. This, if you have been watching Colbert or reading this blog, has created a HUGE opportunity for mocking. And this is an awesome example of that. There will be much more coming, of that you can be certain.
Second, Tom Brady being out for the season. Bwhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
Thank you. I'll be here all week.
First, for whatever reason, during the speech on the final night of the RNC convention there was both a blue and a green screen behind McCain. This, if you have been watching Colbert or reading this blog, has created a HUGE opportunity for mocking. And this is an awesome example of that. There will be much more coming, of that you can be certain.
Second, Tom Brady being out for the season. Bwhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
Thank you. I'll be here all week.
Sunday, September 07, 2008
Couple Questions
1) Can people act to help someone without something in return?
2) What is the fear that underlies vulnerability? Why are people afraid to show weakness before others, even close friends? What is that underlying fear?
2) What is the fear that underlies vulnerability? Why are people afraid to show weakness before others, even close friends? What is that underlying fear?
Saturday, September 06, 2008
Quotes I Now Understand
I like quotes, particularly the more profound ones. They offer little bits of wisdom very concisely. The thing about them is that, in my experience, you need to have some basis of experience to know what they are talking about. It is more like a concise way to sum up an experience rather than a way to warn or educate.
In any case, here are a few that I realized recently that I now understand where before I just thought I had an idea of what the quote was talking about or, in the case of the second one, was really puzzled about.
"Beauty often seduces us on the way to truth"
"It is better to have loved and lost than to have never loved before"
"BOAT means Bet On Another Thousand"
"The two happiest days of a boat owners life are the day the boat is purchased and the day the boat is sold"
In any case, here are a few that I realized recently that I now understand where before I just thought I had an idea of what the quote was talking about or, in the case of the second one, was really puzzled about.
"Beauty often seduces us on the way to truth"
"It is better to have loved and lost than to have never loved before"
"BOAT means Bet On Another Thousand"
"The two happiest days of a boat owners life are the day the boat is purchased and the day the boat is sold"
Thursday, September 04, 2008
Obama Writes Speeches!
Well I declare! Obama has been writing his major speeches. That's cool.
Unlike Palin, who speech was written a week ago for an unknown male pick:
So, who is the real fighter here? Someone speaking his own words or someone speaking words that weren't even originally written for her?
Unlike Palin, who speech was written a week ago for an unknown male pick:
Can voters this year be sure they learned something about the real Sarah Palin from her GOP vice presidential nomination acceptance speech last night, considering news that it was originally written by speechwriter Matthew Scully over a week ago for an unknown male nominee? The commissioned draft was subsequently customized by Palin and a team of McCain staffers in the 48 hours leading up to its presentation.
So, who is the real fighter here? Someone speaking his own words or someone speaking words that weren't even originally written for her?
Loosing an Argument
You know, there are some signs you can take from the phrases that people use that usually indicate when they aren't confident in their argument or feel like they are using. Two of them that I keep hearing from political shills, particularly McCain operatives recently when talking about Palin's foreign policy experience, are the phrase 'The fact is' and '[x amount of people] agree'.
When you keep repeating 'the fact is' all you are doing is trying to convince yourself. If it is a fact, it'll stand on its own. There isn't a need to identify it as such, particularly over and over.
The second phrase is more along the lines of trying to convince someone you are right by claiming lots of people agree with you so obviously it is right. Like 'millions of Americans believe the same things as Sarah Palin so her views can't be extremist.' Wow, color me convinced.
Anyway, just thought I'd throw those observations out there. And this isn't just in politics but in any conversation or debate really. Try it on your friends!
When you keep repeating 'the fact is' all you are doing is trying to convince yourself. If it is a fact, it'll stand on its own. There isn't a need to identify it as such, particularly over and over.
The second phrase is more along the lines of trying to convince someone you are right by claiming lots of people agree with you so obviously it is right. Like 'millions of Americans believe the same things as Sarah Palin so her views can't be extremist.' Wow, color me convinced.
Anyway, just thought I'd throw those observations out there. And this isn't just in politics but in any conversation or debate really. Try it on your friends!
Fact Checking the RNC Convention
Monday, September 01, 2008
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Biden: Part Two
After some chatting with people and some reading, I think Biden is a better choice both long-term AND short-term than I thought before. Even though he has been in Congress forever, he commutes from his home in Deleware every night (or used to, not totally sure he still does since he remarried). In any case, his family and himself never got involved in the lobbyist culture of Washington which why he remains the poorest sentor on the Hill.
What does that give you? The ultimate outsider insider. That's great. Plus, he probably locks PA for Obama and puts into play Pennsaltuky.
While he is a hawk on the war he is a populist and that'll complement Obama nicely.
I'm liking it more and more. And he is going to rip apart whomever is McCain's VP pick in the debate. That'll be awesome.
Oh, one more thing. Deleware has a democratic governer so we won't loose that seat in the senate AND, and this one is nice, Dodd is next in line on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee after Biden. Dodd isn't the hawk Biden is.
Good times.
What does that give you? The ultimate outsider insider. That's great. Plus, he probably locks PA for Obama and puts into play Pennsaltuky.
While he is a hawk on the war he is a populist and that'll complement Obama nicely.
I'm liking it more and more. And he is going to rip apart whomever is McCain's VP pick in the debate. That'll be awesome.
Oh, one more thing. Deleware has a democratic governer so we won't loose that seat in the senate AND, and this one is nice, Dodd is next in line on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee after Biden. Dodd isn't the hawk Biden is.
Good times.
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Biden
Biden is an awesome choice from a long term perspective. He has been around long enough to know DC inside and out and absolutely fills out the ticket regarding Obama's weaknesses. The interesting thing about the choice though is he doesn't do what the VP choice has done for the various tickets recently - bring some aspect of the voting public around. For example, Edwards being picked in 2004 was to help bring the blue collar southern working vote. Biden is from Delaware, that isn't exactly a huge electoral state.
I'm glad Obama picked based on long term considerations rather than short term ones.
Awesome.
I'm glad Obama picked based on long term considerations rather than short term ones.
Awesome.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Tax Plan Comparison
Ok, so I've been on a roll today with politics. That is what happens when it is a beautiful day outside and I don't feel like working.
Anyway, here is a nice article comparing the two plans. The following graph really does a good job of breaking this down so it can be digested.
Just want to point out a couple of things. First, the trickle down economics (or voodoo economics) of the 80's obviously do not work. The McCain camp's argument is the same as Reagan's in that if you provide more money for the rich, they will hire more people and create new jobs and that wealth will trickle down. Obviously that hasn't happened since the gap between the rich and poor has widened so much. When 60% of Americans make less than $66k a year, that's a pretty big gap.
Second, economic stimulus and getting people to spend money in America only works if the money you give back will be spent and will be done so in America. It does no good to tie it up in offshore investments or savings accounts, etc. The people most likely to spent real dollars back into the US economy are those at the lower end of the tax bracket. The people that don't have a lot of material wealth or who are living paycheck to paycheck. You give those people a break and more income, you will end up with more direct investment right back into the US economy since that money will be spent quickly.
In summary, cutting taxes for the lower brackets is likely to have a greater effect on the economy on a whole than cutting taxes for the upper brackets and expecting it to trickle down.
With all of that in mind, Obama's plan focuses more on the lower brackets where it will have a true and immediate effect where McCain's is mostly a kickback to the upper brackets with lip-service to the lower brackets. So when you hear the two candidates and their surrogates talk about tax plans and who is doing more to help out the middle class, just remember this chart.
Anyway, here is a nice article comparing the two plans. The following graph really does a good job of breaking this down so it can be digested.
Just want to point out a couple of things. First, the trickle down economics (or voodoo economics) of the 80's obviously do not work. The McCain camp's argument is the same as Reagan's in that if you provide more money for the rich, they will hire more people and create new jobs and that wealth will trickle down. Obviously that hasn't happened since the gap between the rich and poor has widened so much. When 60% of Americans make less than $66k a year, that's a pretty big gap.
Second, economic stimulus and getting people to spend money in America only works if the money you give back will be spent and will be done so in America. It does no good to tie it up in offshore investments or savings accounts, etc. The people most likely to spent real dollars back into the US economy are those at the lower end of the tax bracket. The people that don't have a lot of material wealth or who are living paycheck to paycheck. You give those people a break and more income, you will end up with more direct investment right back into the US economy since that money will be spent quickly.
In summary, cutting taxes for the lower brackets is likely to have a greater effect on the economy on a whole than cutting taxes for the upper brackets and expecting it to trickle down.
With all of that in mind, Obama's plan focuses more on the lower brackets where it will have a true and immediate effect where McCain's is mostly a kickback to the upper brackets with lip-service to the lower brackets. So when you hear the two candidates and their surrogates talk about tax plans and who is doing more to help out the middle class, just remember this chart.
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