Monday, November 03, 2008

Path To Victory

This link talks about Obama's path to victory. The good part:

That leaves our five states in play. The victory conditions for Obama involving these five states proceed something as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada*
2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.
3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.

(* Nevada produces a 269-269 tie, which would probably be resolved for Obama in the House of Represenatives.)

Now, suppose you think that Colorado is already in the bag for Obama because of his large edge in early voting there. We can then simplify the victory conditions as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania
2. Win Ohio
3. Win Virginia AND Nevada

I've maintained that we will probably know the winner by 10 pm tomorrow night if PA and VA go Obama, which they should unless something funky happens.

Notice what is missing though? Flordia. No one gives a crap about Flordia, it just doesn't play in to the calc. And Ohio is only one of five. Such a welcome change from the past two cycles with only one or two battleground states.

There will be upsets and disappointments, but on the whole this is looking pretty good for those of us on the left.



Clyde said...

Personally, I think it is looking good for those of us on the right too...Again ;-)

Ryan said...

Can I have whatever it is you are smoking?