Wednesday, January 09, 2008

NH and South Carolina

Since I rocked with my Clinton win prediction in NH I figure I'll toss some out for South Carolina. Michigan doesn't really count because it really isn't a contest.

South Carolina is interesting. The primary system as it is today was put in place in the 60's. I'm not totally sure on the exact dates but I believe during the Goldwater revolution in the Republican party and the rise of the 'southern strategy' during Reagan and the exodus of the Dixiecrats from the Democratic party, South Carolina was envisioned as a fire wall from any non-establishment canaditate in the Republican party (how do you like that run-on sentence). A recent example of this strategy in work was the 2000 election when Bush beat McCain in SC and then on to win the nomination. Bush was the establishment canaditate and SC did exactly what it was meant to do, it weeded out the garbage. Of course, the famous 'McCain fathered a black son' push poll helped.

So, it is with a fair amount of glee and irony that SC, the firewall to protect the establishment, may very well propel Huckabee towards the nomination against the establishments wishes. So funny. You can't write this stuff.

On the Dem side, this one is tough. Edwards is very strong in SC and he could make a strong showing. I'm betting he pulls in second if he decides to make a stand there, although I'm betting he makes his stand on Feb 5th. It'll be a fight for 1st but I bet Obama wins with Hillary in 3rd...basically a repeat of Iowa just closer.

In summary, on the Repub side Huck, McCain then Romney. On the Dem side Obama, Edwards, Clinton.

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